Hapoel Nazareth Illit 0–1 Hapoel Kfar Saba

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hapoel Kfar Saba

9/29/2025

Liga Leumit · Round 6Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Hapoel Nazareth Illit40%

×Draw27%

Hapoel Kfar Saba34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Nazareth IllitExpected goals in this matchHapoel Kfar Saba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.20

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.33

Hapoel Kfar Saba

1.20

Hapoel Nazareth Illit creates 11% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 95 away

1.39

creates per match

1.25

1.15

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.39

Hapoel Kfar Saba

1.25

allows per match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.15

Hapoel Kfar Saba

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Nazareth Illit+0.00on par

Hapoel Kfar Saba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Nazareth Illit ↓

Hapoel Kfar Saba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hapoel Nazareth Illit or draw

66%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit or Hapoel Kfar Saba

73%

Draw or Hapoel Kfar Saba

60%

Winning margin

Hapoel Nazareth Illit wins by 2+

18%

Hapoel Kfar Saba wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1+ goals

74%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2+ goals

38%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 3+ goals

15%

Hapoel Kfar Saba 1+ goals

70%

Hapoel Kfar Saba 2+ goals

34%

Hapoel Kfar Saba 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Nazareth Illit (draw refunded)

54%

Hapoel Kfar Saba (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Nazareth Illit at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

Hapoel Kfar Saba away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit attack 1.39 + Hapoel Kfar Saba defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Hapoel Kfar Saba attack 1.25 + Hapoel Nazareth Illit defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hapoel Nazareth Illit scores more

40%

level

27%

Hapoel Kfar Saba scores more

34%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hapoel Nazareth Illit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff