Hapoel Nazareth Illit 4–0 Hapoel Herzliya

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Hapoel Herzliya

1/28/2024

State Cup · 8th RoundGreen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hapoel Nazareth Illit45%

×Draw24%

Hapoel Herzliya32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Nazareth IllitExpected goals in this matchHapoel Herzliya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.36

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.66

Hapoel Herzliya

1.36

Hapoel Nazareth Illit creates 22% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

1.60

creates per match

1.43

1.30

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.60

Hapoel Herzliya

1.43

allows per match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.30

Hapoel Herzliya

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Nazareth Illit+0.00on par

Hapoel Herzliya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Nazareth Illit ↓

Hapoel Herzliya →

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Hapoel Nazareth Illit or draw

68%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit or Hapoel Herzliya

76%

Draw or Hapoel Herzliya

55%

Winning margin

Hapoel Nazareth Illit wins by 2+

23%

Hapoel Herzliya wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1+ goals

81%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2+ goals

49%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 3+ goals

23%

Hapoel Herzliya 1+ goals

74%

Hapoel Herzliya 2+ goals

39%

Hapoel Herzliya 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Nazareth Illit (draw refunded)

59%

Hapoel Herzliya (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Nazareth Illit at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Hapoel Herzliya away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit attack 1.60 + Hapoel Herzliya defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.66

Hapoel Herzliya attack 1.43 + Hapoel Nazareth Illit defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hapoel Nazareth Illit scores more

45%

level

24%

Hapoel Herzliya scores more

32%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Hapoel Nazareth Illit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff