Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1–1 Bnei Yehuda

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bnei Yehuda

3/31/2026

Liga Leumit · Round 28Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Hapoel Nazareth Illit41%

×Draw26%

Bnei Yehuda33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Nazareth IllitExpected goals in this matchBnei Yehuda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.23

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.39

Bnei Yehuda

1.23

Hapoel Nazareth Illit creates 13% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 94 away

1.39

creates per match

1.32

1.15

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.39

Bnei Yehuda

1.32

allows per match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit

1.15

Bnei Yehuda

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Nazareth Illit+0.00on par

Bnei Yehuda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Nazareth Illit ↓

Bnei Yehuda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hapoel Nazareth Illit or draw

67%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit or Bnei Yehuda

74%

Draw or Bnei Yehuda

59%

Winning margin

Hapoel Nazareth Illit wins by 2+

19%

Bnei Yehuda wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1+ goals

75%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2+ goals

40%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 3+ goals

16%

Bnei Yehuda 1+ goals

71%

Bnei Yehuda 2+ goals

35%

Bnei Yehuda 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Nazareth Illit (draw refunded)

55%

Bnei Yehuda (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Nazareth Illit at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

Bnei Yehuda away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.39 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit attack 1.39 + Bnei Yehuda defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.39

Bnei Yehuda attack 1.32 + Hapoel Nazareth Illit defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hapoel Nazareth Illit scores more

41%

level

26%

Bnei Yehuda scores more

33%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hapoel Nazareth Illit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff