Hapoel Marmorek 1–0 Maccabi Tzur Shalom

Hapoel Marmorek

1 – 0

Maccabi Tzur Shalom

R. Itzhak 29'

10/29/2019

State Cup · 7th RoundItztoni Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Marmorek33%

×Draw29%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel MarmorekExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Tzur Shalom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.17

Hapoel Marmorek

1.06

Maccabi Tzur Shalom

1.17

Maccabi Tzur Shalom creates 10% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.80

creates per match

1.33

1.00

allows per match

0.33

creates per match

Hapoel Marmorek

1.80

Maccabi Tzur Shalom

1.33

allows per match

Hapoel Marmorek

1.00

Maccabi Tzur Shalom

0.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Marmorek+0.00on par

Maccabi Tzur Shalom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Marmorek ↓

Maccabi Tzur Shalom →

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Hapoel Marmorek or draw

62%

Hapoel Marmorek or Maccabi Tzur Shalom

71%

Draw or Maccabi Tzur Shalom

67%

Winning margin

Hapoel Marmorek wins by 2+

13%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Hapoel Marmorek 1+ goals

65%

Hapoel Marmorek 2+ goals

29%

Hapoel Marmorek 3+ goals

Maccabi Tzur Shalom 1+ goals

69%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom 2+ goals

33%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Marmorek (draw refunded)

46%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Marmorek at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Maccabi Tzur Shalom away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Marmorek attack 1.80 + Maccabi Tzur Shalom defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Maccabi Tzur Shalom attack 1.33 + Hapoel Marmorek defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hapoel Marmorek scores more

33%

level

29%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom scores more

38%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Maccabi Tzur Shalom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

R. Itzhak

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff