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Hapoel Marmorek vs Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden — League #496 2026

Hapoel Marmorek
Hapoel Marmorek
FT
3 – 0
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
10/22/2021League #496League #496 · South - 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hapoel Marmorek47%
×Draw25%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Marmorek
1.59
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.18

Hapoel Marmorek creates 35% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 29 away

creates per match

Hapoel Marmorek
1.29
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.07

allows per match

Hapoel Marmorek
1.29
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.90

finishing

Hapoel Marmorek+0.00on par
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Marmorek ↓

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hapoel Marmorek or draw
72%
Hapoel Marmorek or Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
75%
Draw or Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
53%

Winning margin

Hapoel Marmorek wins by 2+
24%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hapoel Marmorek 1+ goals
80%
Hapoel Marmorek 2+ goals
47%
Hapoel Marmorek 3+ goals
21%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 1+ goals
69%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 2+ goals
33%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Marmorek (draw refunded)
62%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Marmorek at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.90 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Marmorek attack 1.29 + Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.59

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden attack 1.07 + Hapoel Marmorek defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hapoel Marmorek scores more
47%
level
25%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden scores more
28%

Hapoel Marmorek at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hapoel Marmorek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Marmorek vs Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden

Hapoel Marmorek beat Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 3-0 in League #496 on October 22, 2021.