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Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden vs Hapoel Marmorek — League #496 2026

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Hapoel Marmorek
Hapoel Marmorek
2/17/2022League #496League #496 · South - 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden13%
×Draw20%
Hapoel Marmorek67%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
0.78
Hapoel Marmorek
2.06

Hapoel Marmorek creates 164% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
0.89
Hapoel Marmorek
2.33

allows per match

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.79
Hapoel Marmorek
0.67

finishing

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden+0.00on par
Hapoel Marmorek+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden ↓

Hapoel Marmorek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–212%
0–39%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden or draw
33%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden or Hapoel Marmorek
80%
Draw or Hapoel Marmorek
87%

Winning margin

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden wins by 2+
4%
Hapoel Marmorek wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 1+ goals
54%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 2+ goals
18%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 3+ goals
4%
Hapoel Marmorek 1+ goals
87%
Hapoel Marmorek 2+ goals
61%
Hapoel Marmorek 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden (draw refunded)
16%
Hapoel Marmorek (draw refunded)
84%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.79 · 28 matches

Hapoel Marmorek away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden attack 0.89 + Hapoel Marmorek defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.78

Hapoel Marmorek attack 2.33 + Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden scores more
13%
level
20%
Hapoel Marmorek scores more
67%

Hapoel Marmorek at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Hapoel Marmorek will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden vs Hapoel Marmorek

Hapoel Marmorek beat Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 4-0 in League #496 on February 17, 2022.