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Hapoel Mahane Yehuda vs Tzeirey Tira — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
FT
0 – 1
Tzeirey Tira
Tzeirey Tira
8/30/2022State CupState Cup · 1st Round (Liga Bet)Mahane Yehuda Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda17%
×Draw25%
Tzeirey Tira58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
0.75
Tzeirey Tira
1.63

Tzeirey Tira creates 117% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
0.75
Tzeirey Tira
1.50

allows per match

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
1.75
Tzeirey Tira
0.75

finishing

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda+0.00on par
Tzeirey Tira+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda ↓

Tzeirey Tira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda or draw
42%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda or Tzeirey Tira
75%
Draw or Tzeirey Tira
83%

Winning margin

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda wins by 2+
5%
Tzeirey Tira wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 1+ goals
53%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 2+ goals
17%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 3+ goals
4%
Tzeirey Tira 1+ goals
80%
Tzeirey Tira 2+ goals
48%
Tzeirey Tira 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda (draw refunded)
23%
Tzeirey Tira (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Tzeirey Tira away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda attack 0.75 + Tzeirey Tira defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.75

Tzeirey Tira attack 1.50 + Hapoel Mahane Yehuda defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda scores more
17%
level
25%
Tzeirey Tira scores more
58%

Tzeirey Tira at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Tzeirey Tira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Mahane Yehuda vs Tzeirey Tira

Tzeirey Tira beat Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 1-0 in State Cup on August 30, 2022.

The match was played at Mahane Yehuda Field in Petach-Tikva.