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Hapoel Mahane Yehuda vs Hapoel Ramat Gan — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Hapoel Ramat Gan
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1/9/2024State CupState Cup · 7th RoundMahane Yehuda Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda12%
×Draw16%
Hapoel Ramat Gan72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
1.00
Hapoel Ramat Gan
2.63

Hapoel Ramat Gan creates 163% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
0.75
Hapoel Ramat Gan
3.50

allows per match

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
1.75
Hapoel Ramat Gan
1.25

finishing

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda+0.00on par
Hapoel Ramat Gan+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda ↓

Hapoel Ramat Gan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda or draw
28%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda or Hapoel Ramat Gan
84%
Draw or Hapoel Ramat Gan
88%

Winning margin

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda wins by 2+
4%
Hapoel Ramat Gan wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 1+ goals
63%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 2+ goals
26%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 3+ goals
8%
Hapoel Ramat Gan 1+ goals
93%
Hapoel Ramat Gan 2+ goals
73%
Hapoel Ramat Gan 3+ goals
48%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda (draw refunded)
15%
Hapoel Ramat Gan (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Hapoel Ramat Gan away — creates 3.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda attack 0.75 + Hapoel Ramat Gan defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.00

Hapoel Ramat Gan attack 3.50 + Hapoel Mahane Yehuda defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda scores more
12%
level
16%
Hapoel Ramat Gan scores more
72%

Hapoel Ramat Gan at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Hapoel Ramat Gan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Mahane Yehuda vs Hapoel Ramat Gan

Hapoel Ramat Gan beat Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 5-0 in State Cup on January 9, 2024.

The match was played at Mahane Yehuda Field in Petach-Tikva.