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Hapoel Mahane Yehuda vs Beitar Ramat Gan — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
FT
1 – 0
Beitar Ramat Gan
Beitar Ramat Gan
9/7/2023State CupState Cup · 1st Round (Liga Bet)Mahane Yehuda Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda47%
×Draw22%
Beitar Ramat Gan32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
2.00
Beitar Ramat Gan
1.63

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda creates 23% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
0.75
Beitar Ramat Gan
1.50

allows per match

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
1.75
Beitar Ramat Gan
3.25

finishing

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda+0.00on par
Beitar Ramat Gan+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda ↓

Beitar Ramat Gan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda or draw
68%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda or Beitar Ramat Gan
78%
Draw or Beitar Ramat Gan
53%

Winning margin

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda wins by 2+
26%
Beitar Ramat Gan wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 1+ goals
86%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 2+ goals
59%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 3+ goals
32%
Beitar Ramat Gan 1+ goals
80%
Beitar Ramat Gan 2+ goals
48%
Beitar Ramat Gan 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda (draw refunded)
59%
Beitar Ramat Gan (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Beitar Ramat Gan away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda attack 0.75 + Beitar Ramat Gan defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.00

Beitar Ramat Gan attack 1.50 + Hapoel Mahane Yehuda defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda scores more
47%
level
22%
Beitar Ramat Gan scores more
32%

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hapoel Mahane Yehuda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Mahane Yehuda vs Beitar Ramat Gan

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda beat Beitar Ramat Gan 1-0 in State Cup on September 7, 2023.

The match was played at Mahane Yehuda Field in Petach-Tikva.