Hapoel Lod 1–2 Dimona: Result & Stats | State Cup

Hapoel Lod

1 – 2

Dimona

8/31/2023

State Cup · 5th Round (Liga Alef)Lod Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Lod48%

×Draw23%

Dimona29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel LodExpected goals in this matchDimona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.38

Hapoel Lod

1.85

Dimona

1.38

Hapoel Lod creates 34% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

2.33

creates per match

1.75

1.00

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Hapoel Lod

2.33

Dimona

1.75

allows per match

Hapoel Lod

1.00

Dimona

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Lod+0.00on par

Dimona+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Lod ↓

Dimona →

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Hapoel Lod or draw

71%

Hapoel Lod or Dimona

77%

Draw or Dimona

52%

Winning margin

Hapoel Lod wins by 2+

27%

Dimona wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hapoel Lod 1+ goals

84%

Hapoel Lod 2+ goals

55%

Hapoel Lod 3+ goals

28%

Dimona 1+ goals

75%

Dimona 2+ goals

40%

Dimona 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Lod (draw refunded)

63%

Dimona (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Lod at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Dimona away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Lod attack 2.33 + Dimona defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.85

Dimona attack 1.75 + Hapoel Lod defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hapoel Lod scores more

48%

level

23%

Dimona scores more

29%

Hapoel Lod at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hapoel Lod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff