Hapoel Lod 2–2 Beitar Yavne: Result & Stats

Hapoel Lod

AET

2 – 2

Beitar Yavne

8/30/2019

State Cup · 1st RoundLod Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Lod76%

×Draw15%

Beitar Yavne9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel LodExpected goals in this matchBeitar Yavne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

0.83

Hapoel Lod

2.67

Beitar Yavne

0.83

Hapoel Lod creates 222% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.33

creates per match

0.67

1.00

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Hapoel Lod

2.33

Beitar Yavne

0.67

allows per match

Hapoel Lod

1.00

Beitar Yavne

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Lod+0.00on par

Beitar Yavne+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Lod ↓

Beitar Yavne →

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–08%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Hapoel Lod or draw

91%

Hapoel Lod or Beitar Yavne

85%

Draw or Beitar Yavne

24%

Winning margin

Hapoel Lod wins by 2+

54%

Beitar Yavne wins by 2+

Team goals

Hapoel Lod 1+ goals

93%

Hapoel Lod 2+ goals

74%

Hapoel Lod 3+ goals

49%

Beitar Yavne 1+ goals

56%

Beitar Yavne 2+ goals

20%

Beitar Yavne 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Hapoel Lod (draw refunded)

89%

Beitar Yavne (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Lod at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Beitar Yavne away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Lod attack 2.33 + Beitar Yavne defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.67

Beitar Yavne attack 0.67 + Hapoel Lod defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 76%?"

Hapoel Lod scores more

76%

level

15%

Beitar Yavne scores more

Hapoel Lod at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Hapoel Lod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff