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Hapoel Kiryat Ono vs Hapoel Mahane Yehuda — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Kiryat Ono
Hapoel Kiryat Ono
FT
1 – 2
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
10/8/2024State CupState Cup · 3rd Round (Liga Bet)Kiryat Ono Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hapoel Kiryat Ono48%
×Draw22%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Kiryat Ono
1.94
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
1.50

Hapoel Kiryat Ono creates 29% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Hapoel Kiryat Ono
2.00
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
2.00

allows per match

Hapoel Kiryat Ono
1.00
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
1.88

finishing

Hapoel Kiryat Ono+0.00on par
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kiryat Ono ↓

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Hapoel Kiryat Ono or draw
70%
Hapoel Kiryat Ono or Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
78%
Draw or Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
52%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kiryat Ono wins by 2+
27%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hapoel Kiryat Ono 1+ goals
86%
Hapoel Kiryat Ono 2+ goals
58%
Hapoel Kiryat Ono 3+ goals
30%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 1+ goals
78%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 2+ goals
44%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kiryat Ono (draw refunded)
61%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kiryat Ono at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kiryat Ono attack 2.00 + Hapoel Mahane Yehuda defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.94

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda attack 2.00 + Hapoel Kiryat Ono defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hapoel Kiryat Ono scores more
48%
level
22%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda scores more
30%

Hapoel Kiryat Ono at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hapoel Kiryat Ono will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Kiryat Ono vs Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda beat Hapoel Kiryat Ono 2-1 in State Cup on October 8, 2024.

The match was played at Kiryat Ono Stadium in Kiryat Ono.