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Hapoel Kiryat Ono vs Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Kiryat Ono
Hapoel Kiryat Ono
FT
5 – 0
Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa
Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa
9/6/2024State CupState Cup · 1st Round (Liga Bet)Kiryat Ono Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Kiryat Ono81%
×Draw14%
Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Kiryat Ono
2.50
Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa
0.50

Hapoel Kiryat Ono creates 400% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Hapoel Kiryat Ono
2.00
Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa
0.00

allows per match

Hapoel Kiryat Ono
1.00
Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa
3.00

finishing

Hapoel Kiryat Ono+0.00on par
Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kiryat Ono ↓

Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Hapoel Kiryat Ono or draw
94%
Hapoel Kiryat Ono or Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa
86%
Draw or Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa
19%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kiryat Ono wins by 2+
58%
Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Hapoel Kiryat Ono 1+ goals
92%
Hapoel Kiryat Ono 2+ goals
71%
Hapoel Kiryat Ono 3+ goals
45%
Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa 1+ goals
39%
Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa 2+ goals
9%
Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kiryat Ono (draw refunded)
94%
Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kiryat Ono at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kiryat Ono attack 2.00 + Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa attack 0.00 + Hapoel Kiryat Ono defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Hapoel Kiryat Ono scores more
81%
level
14%
Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa scores more
6%

Hapoel Kiryat Ono at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Hapoel Kiryat Ono will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Kiryat Ono vs Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa

Hapoel Kiryat Ono beat Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa 5-0 in State Cup on September 6, 2024.

The match was played at Kiryat Ono Stadium in Kiryat Ono.