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Hapoel Kfar Shalem vs Maccabi Ashdod — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Kfar Shalem
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
FT
1 – 2
Maccabi Ashdod
Maccabi Ashdod
12/7/2023State CupState Cup · 6th RoundTel Aviv Sportek South

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hapoel Kfar Shalem30%
×Draw23%
Maccabi Ashdod47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.35
Maccabi Ashdod
1.76

Maccabi Ashdod creates 30% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

creates per match

Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.20
Maccabi Ashdod
2.13

allows per match

Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.40
Maccabi Ashdod
1.50

finishing

Hapoel Kfar Shalem+0.00on par
Maccabi Ashdod+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kfar Shalem ↓

Maccabi Ashdod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hapoel Kfar Shalem or draw
53%
Hapoel Kfar Shalem or Maccabi Ashdod
77%
Draw or Maccabi Ashdod
70%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kfar Shalem wins by 2+
13%
Maccabi Ashdod wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1+ goals
74%
Hapoel Kfar Shalem 2+ goals
39%
Hapoel Kfar Shalem 3+ goals
15%
Maccabi Ashdod 1+ goals
83%
Maccabi Ashdod 2+ goals
52%
Maccabi Ashdod 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kfar Shalem (draw refunded)
39%
Maccabi Ashdod (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kfar Shalem at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Maccabi Ashdod away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kfar Shalem attack 1.20 + Maccabi Ashdod defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Maccabi Ashdod attack 2.13 + Hapoel Kfar Shalem defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hapoel Kfar Shalem scores more
30%
level
23%
Maccabi Ashdod scores more
47%

Maccabi Ashdod at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Maccabi Ashdod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Kfar Shalem vs Maccabi Ashdod

Maccabi Ashdod beat Hapoel Kfar Shalem 2-1 in State Cup on December 7, 2023.

The match was played at Tel Aviv Sportek South in Tel-Aviv.