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Hapoel Kfar Shalem vs Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden — League #496 2026

Hapoel Kfar Shalem
Hapoel Kfar Shalem
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
12/3/2021League #496League #496 · South - 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Hapoel Kfar Shalem55%
×Draw21%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden23%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Kfar Shalem
2.04
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.26

Hapoel Kfar Shalem creates 62% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 29 away

creates per match

Hapoel Kfar Shalem
2.18
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.07

allows per match

Hapoel Kfar Shalem
1.45
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
1.90

finishing

Hapoel Kfar Shalem+0.00on par
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kfar Shalem ↓

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Hapoel Kfar Shalem or draw
77%
Hapoel Kfar Shalem or Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
79%
Draw or Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden
45%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kfar Shalem wins by 2+
33%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1+ goals
87%
Hapoel Kfar Shalem 2+ goals
60%
Hapoel Kfar Shalem 3+ goals
33%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 1+ goals
72%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 2+ goals
36%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kfar Shalem (draw refunded)
70%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kfar Shalem at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.90 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kfar Shalem attack 2.18 + Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.04

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden attack 1.07 + Hapoel Kfar Shalem defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Hapoel Kfar Shalem scores more
55%
level
21%
Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden scores more
23%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hapoel Kfar Shalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Kfar Shalem vs Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden

Hapoel Kfar Shalem beat Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 2-1 in League #496 on December 3, 2021.