Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 0–3 Hapoel Kfar Shalem

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

E. Inbrum 85'

I. Exbard 65', 59'

3/22/2024

League #496 · South - 23Moshava Training Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden18%

×Draw26%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem57%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Bik'at HaYardenExpected goals in this matchHapoel Kfar Shalem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.72

1.53

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden

0.72

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

1.53

Hapoel Kfar Shalem creates 113% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 11 away

0.89

creates per match

1.27

1.79

allows per match

0.55

creates per match

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden

0.89

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

1.27

allows per match

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden

1.79

Hapoel Kfar Shalem

0.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden+0.00on par

Hapoel Kfar Shalem+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden ↓

Hapoel Kfar Shalem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–116%

0–212%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden or draw

43%

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden or Hapoel Kfar Shalem

74%

Draw or Hapoel Kfar Shalem

82%

Winning margin

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden wins by 2+

5%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 1+ goals

51%

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 2+ goals

16%

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden 3+ goals

4%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1+ goals

78%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem 2+ goals

45%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden (draw refunded)

24%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.79 · 28 matches

Hapoel Kfar Shalem away — creates 1.27, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden attack 0.89 + Hapoel Kfar Shalem defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.72

Hapoel Kfar Shalem attack 1.27 + Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hapoel Bik'at HaYarden scores more

18%

level

26%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem scores more

57%

Hapoel Kfar Shalem at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hapoel Kfar Shalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

I. Exbard

65'

I. Exbard

85'

E. Inbrum

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff