Hapoel Kfar Saba 0–1 Maccabi Herzliya

Hapoel Kfar Saba

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Maccabi Herzliya

3/28/2025

Liga Leumit · Round 30Levita Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Hapoel Kfar Saba40%

×Draw26%

Maccabi Herzliya35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Kfar SabaExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Herzliya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.30

Hapoel Kfar Saba

1.41

Maccabi Herzliya

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 56 away

1.23

creates per match

1.27

1.33

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Hapoel Kfar Saba

1.23

Maccabi Herzliya

1.27

allows per match

Hapoel Kfar Saba

1.33

Maccabi Herzliya

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Kfar Saba+0.00on par

Maccabi Herzliya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kfar Saba ↓

Maccabi Herzliya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Hapoel Kfar Saba or draw

65%

Hapoel Kfar Saba or Maccabi Herzliya

74%

Draw or Maccabi Herzliya

60%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kfar Saba wins by 2+

19%

Maccabi Herzliya wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hapoel Kfar Saba 1+ goals

76%

Hapoel Kfar Saba 2+ goals

41%

Hapoel Kfar Saba 3+ goals

17%

Maccabi Herzliya 1+ goals

73%

Maccabi Herzliya 2+ goals

37%

Maccabi Herzliya 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kfar Saba (draw refunded)

53%

Maccabi Herzliya (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kfar Saba at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.33 · 90 matches

Maccabi Herzliya away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kfar Saba attack 1.23 + Maccabi Herzliya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.41

Maccabi Herzliya attack 1.27 + Hapoel Kfar Saba defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hapoel Kfar Saba scores more

40%

level

26%

Maccabi Herzliya scores more

35%

Hapoel Kfar Saba at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hapoel Kfar Saba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff