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Hapoel Kfar Saba vs Kafr Qasim — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Kfar Saba
Hapoel Kfar Saba
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kafr Qasim
Kafr Qasim
11/17/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 8Levita Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Hapoel Kfar Saba36%
×Draw28%
Kafr Qasim36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.20
Kafr Qasim
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 128 away

creates per match

Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.23
Kafr Qasim
1.06

allows per match

Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.33
Kafr Qasim
1.17

finishing

Hapoel Kfar Saba+0.00on par
Kafr Qasim+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kfar Saba ↓

Kafr Qasim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hapoel Kfar Saba or draw
64%
Hapoel Kfar Saba or Kafr Qasim
72%
Draw or Kafr Qasim
64%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kfar Saba wins by 2+
15%
Kafr Qasim wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hapoel Kfar Saba 1+ goals
70%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 2+ goals
34%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 3+ goals
12%
Kafr Qasim 1+ goals
70%
Kafr Qasim 2+ goals
34%
Kafr Qasim 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kfar Saba (draw refunded)
50%
Kafr Qasim (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kfar Saba at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.33 · 90 matches

Kafr Qasim away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.17 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kfar Saba attack 1.23 + Kafr Qasim defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.20

Kafr Qasim attack 1.06 + Hapoel Kfar Saba defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Hapoel Kfar Saba scores more
36%
level
28%
Kafr Qasim scores more
36%

Hapoel Kfar Saba at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Hapoel Kfar Saba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Kfar Saba 0–0 Kafr Qasim

Hapoel Kfar Saba and Kafr Qasim drew 0-0 in Liga Leumit on November 17, 2023.

The match was played at Levita Stadium in Kfar-Saba.