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Hapoel Kfar Saba vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Kfar Saba
Hapoel Kfar Saba
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
2/28/2025Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 26Levita Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Hapoel Kfar Saba40%
×Draw27%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.33
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.20

Hapoel Kfar Saba creates 11% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 112 away

creates per match

Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.23
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.06

allows per match

Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.33
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
1.44

finishing

Hapoel Kfar Saba+0.00on par
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kfar Saba ↓

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hapoel Kfar Saba or draw
66%
Hapoel Kfar Saba or Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
73%
Draw or Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
60%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kfar Saba wins by 2+
18%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hapoel Kfar Saba 1+ goals
74%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 2+ goals
38%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 3+ goals
15%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1+ goals
70%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2+ goals
34%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kfar Saba (draw refunded)
54%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kfar Saba at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.33 · 90 matches

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.44 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kfar Saba attack 1.23 + Hapoel Umm al-Fahm defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm attack 1.06 + Hapoel Kfar Saba defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hapoel Kfar Saba scores more
40%
level
27%
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm scores more
34%

Hapoel Kfar Saba at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hapoel Kfar Saba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Kfar Saba 2–0 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Hapoel Kfar Saba beat Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2-0 in Liga Leumit on February 28, 2025.

The match was played at Levita Stadium in Kfar-Saba.