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Hapoel Kfar Saba vs Hapoel Ramat HaSharon — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Kfar Saba
Hapoel Kfar Saba
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
2/4/2025Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 22Levita Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Hapoel Kfar Saba39%
×Draw26%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.36
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 111 away

creates per match

Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.23
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.21

allows per match

Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.33
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
1.49

finishing

Hapoel Kfar Saba+0.00on par
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kfar Saba ↓

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hapoel Kfar Saba or draw
65%
Hapoel Kfar Saba or Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
74%
Draw or Hapoel Ramat HaSharon
61%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kfar Saba wins by 2+
18%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hapoel Kfar Saba 1+ goals
74%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 2+ goals
39%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 3+ goals
16%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 1+ goals
72%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 2+ goals
36%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kfar Saba (draw refunded)
53%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kfar Saba at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.33 · 90 matches

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.49 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kfar Saba attack 1.23 + Hapoel Ramat HaSharon defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.36

Hapoel Ramat HaSharon attack 1.21 + Hapoel Kfar Saba defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hapoel Kfar Saba scores more
39%
level
26%
Hapoel Ramat HaSharon scores more
35%

Hapoel Kfar Saba at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hapoel Kfar Saba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Kfar Saba vs Hapoel Ramat HaSharon

Hapoel Kfar Saba beat Hapoel Ramat HaSharon 2-0 in Liga Leumit on February 4, 2025.

The match was played at Levita Stadium in Kfar-Saba.