Hapoel Kfar Saba 2–0 Hapoel Afula: Result & Stats

Hapoel Kfar Saba

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hapoel Afula

1/13/2025

Liga Leumit · Round 18Levita Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Hapoel Kfar Saba42%

×Draw26%

Hapoel Afula31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Kfar SabaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Afula

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.18

Hapoel Kfar Saba

1.42

Hapoel Afula

1.18

Hapoel Kfar Saba creates 20% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 129 away

1.23

creates per match

1.02

1.33

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Hapoel Kfar Saba

1.23

Hapoel Afula

1.02

allows per match

Hapoel Kfar Saba

1.33

Hapoel Afula

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Kfar Saba+0.00on par

Hapoel Afula+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kfar Saba ↓

Hapoel Afula →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hapoel Kfar Saba or draw

69%

Hapoel Kfar Saba or Hapoel Afula

74%

Draw or Hapoel Afula

58%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kfar Saba wins by 2+

20%

Hapoel Afula wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hapoel Kfar Saba 1+ goals

76%

Hapoel Kfar Saba 2+ goals

41%

Hapoel Kfar Saba 3+ goals

17%

Hapoel Afula 1+ goals

69%

Hapoel Afula 2+ goals

33%

Hapoel Afula 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kfar Saba (draw refunded)

58%

Hapoel Afula (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kfar Saba at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.33 · 90 matches

Hapoel Afula away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.61 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kfar Saba attack 1.23 + Hapoel Afula defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.42

Hapoel Afula attack 1.02 + Hapoel Kfar Saba defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hapoel Kfar Saba scores more

42%

level

26%

Hapoel Afula scores more

31%

Hapoel Kfar Saba at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hapoel Kfar Saba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff