Hapoel Kfar Saba 1–1 Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla

Hapoel Kfar Saba

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla

9/19/2021

Liga Leumit · Round 4Levita Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Hapoel Kfar Saba39%

×Draw26%

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Kfar SabaExpected goals in this matchBeitar Tel Aviv Ramla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.29

Hapoel Kfar Saba

1.36

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 41 away

1.23

creates per match

1.24

1.33

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Hapoel Kfar Saba

1.23

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla

1.24

allows per match

Hapoel Kfar Saba

1.33

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Kfar Saba+0.00on par

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kfar Saba ↓

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Hapoel Kfar Saba or draw

65%

Hapoel Kfar Saba or Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla

74%

Draw or Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla

61%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kfar Saba wins by 2+

18%

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hapoel Kfar Saba 1+ goals

74%

Hapoel Kfar Saba 2+ goals

39%

Hapoel Kfar Saba 3+ goals

16%

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 1+ goals

72%

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 2+ goals

37%

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kfar Saba (draw refunded)

52%

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kfar Saba at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.33 · 90 matches

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.49 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kfar Saba attack 1.23 + Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.36

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla attack 1.24 + Hapoel Kfar Saba defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hapoel Kfar Saba scores more

39%

level

26%

Beitar Tel Aviv Ramla scores more

35%

Hapoel Kfar Saba at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hapoel Kfar Saba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff