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Hapoel Kfar Kana vs Tzeirey Taibe — League #496 2026

Hapoel Kfar Kana
Hapoel Kfar Kana
CANC
00:00
Tzeirey Taibe
Tzeirey Taibe
2/3/2024League #496League #496 · North - 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Hapoel Kfar Kana18%
×Draw24%
Tzeirey Taibe58%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Kfar Kana
0.84
Tzeirey Taibe
1.71

Tzeirey Taibe creates 104% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 5 away

creates per match

Hapoel Kfar Kana
1.29
Tzeirey Taibe
1.80

allows per match

Hapoel Kfar Kana
1.62
Tzeirey Taibe
0.40

finishing

Hapoel Kfar Kana+0.00on par
Tzeirey Taibe+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kfar Kana ↓

Tzeirey Taibe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hapoel Kfar Kana or draw
42%
Hapoel Kfar Kana or Tzeirey Taibe
76%
Draw or Tzeirey Taibe
82%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kfar Kana wins by 2+
6%
Tzeirey Taibe wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Hapoel Kfar Kana 1+ goals
57%
Hapoel Kfar Kana 2+ goals
21%
Hapoel Kfar Kana 3+ goals
5%
Tzeirey Taibe 1+ goals
82%
Tzeirey Taibe 2+ goals
51%
Tzeirey Taibe 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kfar Kana (draw refunded)
24%
Tzeirey Taibe (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kfar Kana at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

Tzeirey Taibe away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kfar Kana attack 1.29 + Tzeirey Taibe defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.84

Tzeirey Taibe attack 1.80 + Hapoel Kfar Kana defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Hapoel Kfar Kana scores more
18%
level
24%
Tzeirey Taibe scores more
58%

Tzeirey Taibe at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Tzeirey Taibe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hapoel Kfar Kana face Tzeirey Taibe (League #496)

League #496 returns with Hapoel Kfar Kana hosting Tzeirey Taibe. Match starts February 3, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.