Hapoel Kfar Kana 2–2 Robi Shapira: Result & Stats

Hapoel Kfar Kana

FT

2 – 2

Robi Shapira

12/11/2017

League #496 · North - 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hapoel Kfar Kana29%

×Draw27%

Robi Shapira44%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Kfar KanaExpected goals in this matchRobi Shapira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.41

Hapoel Kfar Kana

1.09

Robi Shapira

1.41

Robi Shapira creates 29% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 10 away

1.29

creates per match

1.20

1.62

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Hapoel Kfar Kana

1.29

Robi Shapira

1.20

allows per match

Hapoel Kfar Kana

1.62

Robi Shapira

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Kfar Kana+0.00on par

Robi Shapira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kfar Kana ↓

Robi Shapira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hapoel Kfar Kana or draw

56%

Hapoel Kfar Kana or Robi Shapira

73%

Draw or Robi Shapira

71%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kfar Kana wins by 2+

11%

Robi Shapira wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Hapoel Kfar Kana 1+ goals

66%

Hapoel Kfar Kana 2+ goals

30%

Hapoel Kfar Kana 3+ goals

10%

Robi Shapira 1+ goals

76%

Robi Shapira 2+ goals

41%

Robi Shapira 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kfar Kana (draw refunded)

40%

Robi Shapira (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kfar Kana at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.62 · 21 matches

Robi Shapira away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kfar Kana attack 1.29 + Robi Shapira defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.09

Robi Shapira attack 1.20 + Hapoel Kfar Kana defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hapoel Kfar Kana scores more

29%

level

27%

Robi Shapira scores more

44%

Robi Shapira at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Robi Shapira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff