Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hapoel Kaukab vs Maccabi Kiryat Malachi — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Kaukab
Hapoel Kaukab
AET
1 – 1
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
10/29/2019State CupState Cup · 7th RoundKiryat Eli'ezer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hapoel Kaukab38%
×Draw23%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Kaukab
1.63
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hapoel Kaukab
1.25
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
1.75

allows per match

Hapoel Kaukab
1.50
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
2.00

finishing

Hapoel Kaukab+0.00on par
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kaukab ↓

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Hapoel Kaukab or draw
62%
Hapoel Kaukab or Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
77%
Draw or Maccabi Kiryat Malachi
62%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kaukab wins by 2+
19%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hapoel Kaukab 1+ goals
80%
Hapoel Kaukab 2+ goals
48%
Hapoel Kaukab 3+ goals
22%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 1+ goals
80%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 2+ goals
48%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kaukab (draw refunded)
50%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kaukab at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kaukab attack 1.25 + Maccabi Kiryat Malachi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Maccabi Kiryat Malachi attack 1.75 + Hapoel Kaukab defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hapoel Kaukab scores more
38%
level
23%
Maccabi Kiryat Malachi scores more
38%

Hapoel Kaukab at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hapoel Kaukab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Hapoel Kaukab 1–1 Maccabi Kiryat Malachi

Hapoel Kaukab and Maccabi Kiryat Malachi drew 1-1 in State Cup on October 29, 2019.

The match was played at Kiryat Eli'ezer Stadium in Haifa.