Hapoel Kaukab 0–2 Maccabi Ahi Nazareth

Hapoel Kaukab

0 – 2

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth

9/1/2023

State Cup · 5th Round (Liga Alef)Doha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Kaukab17%

×Draw23%

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth60%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel KaukabExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Ahi Nazareth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.79

1.75

Hapoel Kaukab

0.79

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth

1.75

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth creates 122% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.25

creates per match

2.00

1.50

allows per match

0.33

creates per match

Hapoel Kaukab

1.25

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth

2.00

allows per match

Hapoel Kaukab

1.50

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth

0.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Kaukab+0.00on par

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kaukab ↓

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth →

0–08%

0–114%

0–212%

0–37%

0–43%

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hapoel Kaukab or draw

40%

Hapoel Kaukab or Maccabi Ahi Nazareth

77%

Draw or Maccabi Ahi Nazareth

83%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kaukab wins by 2+

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Hapoel Kaukab 1+ goals

55%

Hapoel Kaukab 2+ goals

19%

Hapoel Kaukab 3+ goals

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 1+ goals

83%

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 2+ goals

52%

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kaukab (draw refunded)

22%

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kaukab at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kaukab attack 1.25 + Maccabi Ahi Nazareth defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.79

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth attack 2.00 + Hapoel Kaukab defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hapoel Kaukab scores more

17%

level

23%

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth scores more

60%

Maccabi Ahi Nazareth at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Maccabi Ahi Nazareth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff