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Hapoel Kaukab vs Hapoel Bnei Zalafa — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Kaukab
Hapoel Kaukab
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Bnei Zalafa
Hapoel Bnei Zalafa
9/12/2022State CupState Cup · 5th Round (Liga Alef)Kaukab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Kaukab27%
×Draw25%
Hapoel Bnei Zalafa48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Kaukab
1.13
Hapoel Bnei Zalafa
1.58

Hapoel Bnei Zalafa creates 40% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Hapoel Kaukab
1.25
Hapoel Bnei Zalafa
1.67

allows per match

Hapoel Kaukab
1.50
Hapoel Bnei Zalafa
1.00

finishing

Hapoel Kaukab+0.00on par
Hapoel Bnei Zalafa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kaukab ↓

Hapoel Bnei Zalafa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Hapoel Kaukab or draw
52%
Hapoel Kaukab or Hapoel Bnei Zalafa
75%
Draw or Hapoel Bnei Zalafa
73%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kaukab wins by 2+
11%
Hapoel Bnei Zalafa wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Hapoel Kaukab 1+ goals
68%
Hapoel Kaukab 2+ goals
31%
Hapoel Kaukab 3+ goals
11%
Hapoel Bnei Zalafa 1+ goals
79%
Hapoel Bnei Zalafa 2+ goals
47%
Hapoel Bnei Zalafa 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kaukab (draw refunded)
36%
Hapoel Bnei Zalafa (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kaukab at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Hapoel Bnei Zalafa away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kaukab attack 1.25 + Hapoel Bnei Zalafa defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Hapoel Bnei Zalafa attack 1.67 + Hapoel Kaukab defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hapoel Kaukab scores more
27%
level
25%
Hapoel Bnei Zalafa scores more
48%

Hapoel Bnei Zalafa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hapoel Bnei Zalafa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Kaukab vs Hapoel Bnei Zalafa

Hapoel Kaukab and Hapoel Bnei Zalafa drew 1-1 in State Cup on September 12, 2022.

The match was played at Kaukab Stadium in Kaukab Abu al-Hija.