Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hapoel Kaukab vs Bnei HaGolan VeHaGalil — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Kaukab
Hapoel Kaukab
FT
0 – 3
Bnei HaGolan VeHaGalil
Bnei HaGolan VeHaGalil
9/6/2024State CupState Cup · 1st Round (Liga Bet)Kaukab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hapoel Kaukab44%
×Draw24%
Bnei HaGolan VeHaGalil33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Kaukab
1.68
Bnei HaGolan VeHaGalil
1.42

Hapoel Kaukab creates 18% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Hapoel Kaukab
1.25
Bnei HaGolan VeHaGalil
1.33

allows per match

Hapoel Kaukab
1.50
Bnei HaGolan VeHaGalil
2.11

finishing

Hapoel Kaukab+0.00on par
Bnei HaGolan VeHaGalil+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kaukab ↓

Bnei HaGolan VeHaGalil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hapoel Kaukab or draw
67%
Hapoel Kaukab or Bnei HaGolan VeHaGalil
76%
Draw or Bnei HaGolan VeHaGalil
56%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kaukab wins by 2+
23%
Bnei HaGolan VeHaGalil wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hapoel Kaukab 1+ goals
81%
Hapoel Kaukab 2+ goals
50%
Hapoel Kaukab 3+ goals
24%
Bnei HaGolan VeHaGalil 1+ goals
76%
Bnei HaGolan VeHaGalil 2+ goals
41%
Bnei HaGolan VeHaGalil 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kaukab (draw refunded)
57%
Bnei HaGolan VeHaGalil (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kaukab at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Bnei HaGolan VeHaGalil away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kaukab attack 1.25 + Bnei HaGolan VeHaGalil defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.68

Bnei HaGolan VeHaGalil attack 1.33 + Hapoel Kaukab defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hapoel Kaukab scores more
44%
level
24%
Bnei HaGolan VeHaGalil scores more
33%

Hapoel Kaukab at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hapoel Kaukab will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Hapoel Kaukab 0–3 Bnei HaGolan VeHaGalil

Bnei HaGolan VeHaGalil beat Hapoel Kaukab 3-0 in State Cup on September 6, 2024.

The match was played at Kaukab Stadium in Kaukab Abu al-Hija.