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Hapoel Katamon vs Maccabi Petah Tikva — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Hapoel Katamon
Hapoel Katamon
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Maccabi Petah Tikva
4/14/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Relegation Round - 2Teddi Malcha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Hapoel Katamon44%
×Draw27%
Maccabi Petah Tikva29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Katamon
1.35
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.04

Hapoel Katamon creates 30% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 68 away

creates per match

Hapoel Katamon
1.13
Maccabi Petah Tikva
0.94

allows per match

Hapoel Katamon
1.15
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.57

finishing

Hapoel Katamon+0.00on par
Maccabi Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Katamon ↓

Maccabi Petah Tikva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hapoel Katamon or draw
71%
Hapoel Katamon or Maccabi Petah Tikva
73%
Draw or Maccabi Petah Tikva
56%

Winning margin

Hapoel Katamon wins by 2+
20%
Maccabi Petah Tikva wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hapoel Katamon 1+ goals
74%
Hapoel Katamon 2+ goals
39%
Hapoel Katamon 3+ goals
15%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 1+ goals
65%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 2+ goals
28%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Katamon (draw refunded)
60%
Maccabi Petah Tikva (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Katamon at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.15 · 84 matches

Maccabi Petah Tikva away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.57 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Katamon attack 1.13 + Maccabi Petah Tikva defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.35

Maccabi Petah Tikva attack 0.94 + Hapoel Katamon defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hapoel Katamon scores more
44%
level
27%
Maccabi Petah Tikva scores more
29%

Hapoel Katamon at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hapoel Katamon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Hapoel Katamon 2–0 Maccabi Petah Tikva

Hapoel Katamon beat Maccabi Petah Tikva 2-0 in Ligat Ha'al on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Teddi Malcha Stadium in Jerusalem.