Hapoel Katamon vs Ironi Tiberias — Ligat Ha'al 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 20+ matches
Hapoel Katamon42%
Ironi Tiberias33%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Hapoel Katamon creates 17% more chances
Season form · 20 home / 21 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over52
- Under48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes56
- No44
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hapoel Katamon ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hapoel Katamon at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches
Ironi Tiberias away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hapoel Katamon attack 1.00 + Ironi Tiberias defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.48
Ironi Tiberias attack 1.14 + Hapoel Katamon defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.27
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
Hapoel Katamon at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "Hapoel Katamon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
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AshdodHapoel KatamonIroni Tiberias
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P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Hapoel Katamon host Ironi Tiberias on Saturday, 1 February 2025 at 15:30. The match is part of the Ligat Ha'al 2025/2026 season.
Match Recap: Hapoel Katamon vs Ironi Tiberias
Hapoel Katamon beat Ironi Tiberias 4-0 in Ligat Ha'al on February 1, 2025.
Goals: G. Badash (30'), Y. Distelfeld (48'), M. Hozez (59'), E. Almog (80' pen).
The match was played at Teddi Malcha Stadium in Jerusalem.