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Hapoel Katamon vs Hapoel Iksal — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Katamon
Hapoel Katamon
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hapoel Iksal
Hapoel Iksal
12/25/2020Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 16Teddi Malcha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Hapoel Katamon51%
×Draw29%
Hapoel Iksal20%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Katamon
1.31
Hapoel Iksal
0.71

Hapoel Katamon creates 85% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 42 away

creates per match

Hapoel Katamon
1.13
Hapoel Iksal
0.81

allows per match

Hapoel Katamon
0.60
Hapoel Iksal
1.50

finishing

Hapoel Katamon+0.00on par
Hapoel Iksal+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Katamon ↓

Hapoel Iksal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Hapoel Katamon or draw
80%
Hapoel Katamon or Hapoel Iksal
71%
Draw or Hapoel Iksal
49%

Winning margin

Hapoel Katamon wins by 2+
24%
Hapoel Iksal wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hapoel Katamon 1+ goals
73%
Hapoel Katamon 2+ goals
38%
Hapoel Katamon 3+ goals
14%
Hapoel Iksal 1+ goals
51%
Hapoel Iksal 2+ goals
16%
Hapoel Iksal 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Katamon (draw refunded)
72%
Hapoel Iksal (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Katamon at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.60 · 30 matches

Hapoel Iksal away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.50 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Katamon attack 1.13 + Hapoel Iksal defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Hapoel Iksal attack 0.81 + Hapoel Katamon defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Hapoel Katamon scores more
51%
level
29%
Hapoel Iksal scores more
20%

Hapoel Katamon at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Hapoel Katamon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Katamon vs Hapoel Iksal

Hapoel Katamon beat Hapoel Iksal 3-0 in Liga Leumit on December 25, 2020.

The match was played at Teddi Malcha Stadium in Jerusalem.