Hapoel Katamon vs Hapoel Beer Sheva — Ligat Ha'al 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 20+ matches
Hapoel Katamon23%
Hapoel Beer Sheva53%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 67% more chances
Season form · 20 home / 20 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hapoel Katamon ↓
Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hapoel Katamon at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches
Hapoel Beer Sheva away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hapoel Katamon attack 1.00 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00
Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.95 + Hapoel Katamon defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.67
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
Hapoel Beer Sheva at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Beitar Jerusalem
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Hapoel Tel Aviv
Maccabi Haifa
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Maccabi Netanya
Bnei Sakhnin
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Hapoel Haifa
AshdodHapoel Katamon
Ironi Tiberias
Maccabi Bnei RainaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Hapoel Katamon host Hapoel Beer Sheva on Sunday, 14 September 2025 at 17:15. The match is part of the Ligat Ha'al 2025/2026 season.
Match Recap: Hapoel Katamon vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
Hapoel Beer Sheva beat Hapoel Katamon 5-1 in Ligat Ha'al on September 14, 2025.
Goals: D. Biton (6', 55', 86' pen), G. Mizrahi (28'), G. Badash (60'), N. Zamir (90' o.g.).
The match was played at Teddy Stadium in Jerusalem.