Hapoel Katamon 0–1 Hapoel Beer Sheva

Hapoel Katamon

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1/20/2024

Ligat Ha'al · Round 18Teddi Malcha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Hapoel Katamon31%

×Draw28%

Hapoel Beer Sheva41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel KatamonExpected goals in this matchHapoel Beer Sheva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.26

Hapoel Katamon

1.07

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.26

Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 18% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 126 away

1.13

creates per match

1.38

1.15

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Hapoel Katamon

1.13

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.38

allows per match

Hapoel Katamon

1.15

Hapoel Beer Sheva

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Katamon+0.00on par

Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Katamon ↓

Hapoel Beer Sheva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hapoel Katamon or draw

59%

Hapoel Katamon or Hapoel Beer Sheva

72%

Draw or Hapoel Beer Sheva

69%

Winning margin

Hapoel Katamon wins by 2+

12%

Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Hapoel Katamon 1+ goals

66%

Hapoel Katamon 2+ goals

29%

Hapoel Katamon 3+ goals

9%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals

72%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals

36%

Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Katamon (draw refunded)

44%

Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Katamon at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.15 · 84 matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.01 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Katamon attack 1.13 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.07

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 1.38 + Hapoel Katamon defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hapoel Katamon scores more

31%

level

28%

Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more

41%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff