Hapoel Katamon 0–0 Bnei Sakhnin: Result & Stats

Hapoel Katamon

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bnei Sakhnin

1/13/2024

Ligat Ha'al · Round 16Teddi Malcha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Hapoel Katamon41%

×Draw28%

Bnei Sakhnin30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel KatamonExpected goals in this matchBnei Sakhnin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.03

Hapoel Katamon

1.25

Bnei Sakhnin

1.03

Hapoel Katamon creates 21% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 102 away

1.13

creates per match

0.91

1.15

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Hapoel Katamon

1.13

Bnei Sakhnin

0.91

allows per match

Hapoel Katamon

1.15

Bnei Sakhnin

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Katamon+0.00on par

Bnei Sakhnin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Katamon ↓

Bnei Sakhnin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Hapoel Katamon or draw

70%

Hapoel Katamon or Bnei Sakhnin

72%

Draw or Bnei Sakhnin

59%

Winning margin

Hapoel Katamon wins by 2+

18%

Bnei Sakhnin wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hapoel Katamon 1+ goals

71%

Hapoel Katamon 2+ goals

36%

Hapoel Katamon 3+ goals

13%

Bnei Sakhnin 1+ goals

64%

Bnei Sakhnin 2+ goals

28%

Bnei Sakhnin 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Katamon (draw refunded)

58%

Bnei Sakhnin (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Katamon at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.15 · 84 matches

Bnei Sakhnin away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.37 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Katamon attack 1.13 + Bnei Sakhnin defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bnei Sakhnin attack 0.91 + Hapoel Katamon defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hapoel Katamon scores more

41%

level

28%

Bnei Sakhnin scores more

30%

Hapoel Katamon at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hapoel Katamon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff