Bnei Sakhnin 0–2 Hapoel Katamon: Result & Stats

Bnei Sakhnin

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Hapoel Katamon

3/8/2025

Ligat Ha'al · Round 26Acre Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Bnei Sakhnin36%

×Draw29%

Hapoel Katamon35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bnei SakhninExpected goals in this matchHapoel Katamon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.10

Bnei Sakhnin

1.12

Hapoel Katamon

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 84 away

0.93

creates per match

0.95

1.26

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Bnei Sakhnin

0.93

Hapoel Katamon

0.95

allows per match

Bnei Sakhnin

1.26

Hapoel Katamon

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bnei Sakhnin+0.00on par

Hapoel Katamon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bnei Sakhnin ↓

Hapoel Katamon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bnei Sakhnin or draw

65%

Bnei Sakhnin or Hapoel Katamon

71%

Draw or Hapoel Katamon

64%

Winning margin

Bnei Sakhnin wins by 2+

15%

Hapoel Katamon wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bnei Sakhnin 1+ goals

67%

Bnei Sakhnin 2+ goals

31%

Bnei Sakhnin 3+ goals

10%

Hapoel Katamon 1+ goals

67%

Hapoel Katamon 2+ goals

30%

Hapoel Katamon 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bnei Sakhnin (draw refunded)

51%

Hapoel Katamon (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bnei Sakhnin at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 102 matches

Hapoel Katamon away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.31 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bnei Sakhnin attack 0.93 + Hapoel Katamon defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.12

Hapoel Katamon attack 0.95 + Bnei Sakhnin defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Bnei Sakhnin scores more

36%

level

29%

Hapoel Katamon scores more

35%

Bnei Sakhnin at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Bnei Sakhnin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff