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Hapoel Iksal vs Maccabi Bnei Raina — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Iksal
Hapoel Iksal
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Maccabi Bnei Raina
Maccabi Bnei Raina
3/18/2022Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 30HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Hapoel Iksal31%
×Draw29%
Maccabi Bnei Raina40%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Iksal
1.03
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.21

Maccabi Bnei Raina creates 17% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 18 away

creates per match

Hapoel Iksal
1.24
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.06

allows per match

Hapoel Iksal
1.36
Maccabi Bnei Raina
0.83

finishing

Hapoel Iksal+0.00on par
Maccabi Bnei Raina+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Iksal ↓

Maccabi Bnei Raina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hapoel Iksal or draw
60%
Hapoel Iksal or Maccabi Bnei Raina
71%
Draw or Maccabi Bnei Raina
69%

Winning margin

Hapoel Iksal wins by 2+
12%
Maccabi Bnei Raina wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hapoel Iksal 1+ goals
64%
Hapoel Iksal 2+ goals
28%
Hapoel Iksal 3+ goals
9%
Maccabi Bnei Raina 1+ goals
70%
Maccabi Bnei Raina 2+ goals
34%
Maccabi Bnei Raina 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Iksal (draw refunded)
44%
Maccabi Bnei Raina (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Iksal at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.36 · 42 matches

Maccabi Bnei Raina away — creates 1.06, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Iksal attack 1.24 + Maccabi Bnei Raina defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.03

Maccabi Bnei Raina attack 1.06 + Hapoel Iksal defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hapoel Iksal scores more
31%
level
29%
Maccabi Bnei Raina scores more
40%

Maccabi Bnei Raina at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Maccabi Bnei Raina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Iksal vs Maccabi Bnei Raina

Hapoel Iksal beat Maccabi Bnei Raina 1-0 in Liga Leumit on March 18, 2022.

The match was played at HaMoshava Stadium in Petach-Tikva.