Hapoel Iksal vs Maccabi Ahi Nazareth — Liga Leumit 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 38+ matches
Hapoel Iksal43%
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth29%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Hapoel Iksal creates 27% more chances
Season form · 38 home / 64 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Hapoel Iksal ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Hapoel Iksal at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.26 · 38 matches
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.44 · 64 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Hapoel Iksal attack 1.29 + Maccabi Ahi Nazareth defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.36
Maccabi Ahi Nazareth attack 0.89 + Hapoel Iksal defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.07
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Hapoel Iksal at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Hapoel Iksal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
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Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Hapoel HaderaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Hapoel Iksal host Maccabi Ahi Nazareth on Tuesday, 29 December 2020 at 17:30. The match is part of the Liga Leumit 2019/2020 season.
Match Recap: Hapoel Iksal vs Maccabi Ahi Nazareth
Hapoel Iksal beat Maccabi Ahi Nazareth 1-0 in Liga Leumit on December 29, 2020.
Goals: Julio Cesar (84').
The match was played at Afula Illit Stadium in Afula.