Hapoel Iksal 1–1 Hapoel Ramat Gan: Result & Stats

Hapoel Iksal

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hapoel Ramat Gan

I. Tamam 14'

M. Maman 8'

11/26/2021

Liga Leumit · Round 12HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Hapoel Iksal33%

×Draw27%

Hapoel Ramat Gan40%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel IksalExpected goals in this matchHapoel Ramat Gan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.32

Hapoel Iksal

1.19

Hapoel Ramat Gan

1.32

Hapoel Ramat Gan creates 11% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 119 away

1.25

creates per match

1.34

1.30

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Hapoel Iksal

1.25

Hapoel Ramat Gan

1.34

allows per match

Hapoel Iksal

1.30

Hapoel Ramat Gan

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Iksal+0.00on par

Hapoel Ramat Gan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Iksal ↓

Hapoel Ramat Gan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Hapoel Iksal or draw

60%

Hapoel Iksal or Hapoel Ramat Gan

73%

Draw or Hapoel Ramat Gan

67%

Winning margin

Hapoel Iksal wins by 2+

14%

Hapoel Ramat Gan wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Hapoel Iksal 1+ goals

70%

Hapoel Iksal 2+ goals

33%

Hapoel Iksal 3+ goals

12%

Hapoel Ramat Gan 1+ goals

73%

Hapoel Ramat Gan 2+ goals

38%

Hapoel Ramat Gan 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Iksal (draw refunded)

46%

Hapoel Ramat Gan (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Iksal at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.30 · 40 matches

Hapoel Ramat Gan away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.13 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Iksal attack 1.25 + Hapoel Ramat Gan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.19

Hapoel Ramat Gan attack 1.34 + Hapoel Iksal defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hapoel Iksal scores more

33%

level

27%

Hapoel Ramat Gan scores more

40%

Hapoel Ramat Gan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hapoel Ramat Gan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

14'

30'

60'

60'

68'

S. Dror← Z. Boris

75'

N. Sharon← L. Nakshari

80'

Y. Tuava← E. Yerushalmi

84'

A. Rosenboim← M. Gosha

Hapoel

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Tamam

Onyekachi

Badir

Manager: O. Tzalpepe

60'▲D. Twizer←▼M. Lazmi

60'▲R. Zikri←▼I. Tamam

75'▲N. Sharon←▼L. Nakshari

84'▲A. Rosenboim←▼M. Gosha

Hapoel Iksal substitutes

TwizerZikriSharonRosenboimSalemBerkovicKorsiaOsherCohen

Manager: L. Zada

30'▲D. Habila←▼A. Navot

68'▲S. Dror←▼Z. Boris

80'▲Y. Tuava←▼E. Yerushalmi

Hapoel Ramat Gan substitutes

HabilaDrorTuavaHershkovichGrinbergOzeriPeretzAidaAvraham