Hapoel Iksal 1–1 Hapoel Kfar Saba: Result & Stats

Hapoel Iksal

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hapoel Kfar Saba

12/29/2021

Liga Leumit · Round 17HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Hapoel Iksal36%

×Draw26%

Hapoel Kfar Saba38%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel IksalExpected goals in this matchHapoel Kfar Saba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.32

Hapoel Iksal

1.27

Hapoel Kfar Saba

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 42 home / 98 away

1.24

creates per match

1.28

1.36

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Hapoel Iksal

1.24

Hapoel Kfar Saba

1.28

allows per match

Hapoel Iksal

1.36

Hapoel Kfar Saba

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Iksal+0.00on par

Hapoel Kfar Saba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Iksal ↓

Hapoel Kfar Saba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hapoel Iksal or draw

62%

Hapoel Iksal or Hapoel Kfar Saba

74%

Draw or Hapoel Kfar Saba

64%

Winning margin

Hapoel Iksal wins by 2+

15%

Hapoel Kfar Saba wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hapoel Iksal 1+ goals

72%

Hapoel Iksal 2+ goals

36%

Hapoel Iksal 3+ goals

14%

Hapoel Kfar Saba 1+ goals

73%

Hapoel Kfar Saba 2+ goals

38%

Hapoel Kfar Saba 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Iksal (draw refunded)

48%

Hapoel Kfar Saba (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Iksal at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.36 · 42 matches

Hapoel Kfar Saba away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.30 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Iksal attack 1.24 + Hapoel Kfar Saba defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Hapoel Kfar Saba attack 1.28 + Hapoel Iksal defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hapoel Iksal scores more

36%

level

26%

Hapoel Kfar Saba scores more

38%

Hapoel Kfar Saba at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hapoel Kfar Saba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff