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Hapoel Hod HaSharon vs Hapoel Mahane Yehuda — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Hod HaSharon
Hapoel Hod HaSharon
FT
5 – 1
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
1/5/2025State CupState Cup · 4th Round (Liga Bet)Neve Hadar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hapoel Hod HaSharon38%
×Draw22%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Hod HaSharon
1.81
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Hapoel Hod HaSharon
1.75
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
2.00

allows per match

Hapoel Hod HaSharon
1.75
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
1.88

finishing

Hapoel Hod HaSharon+0.00on par
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Hod HaSharon ↓

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Hapoel Hod HaSharon or draw
59%
Hapoel Hod HaSharon or Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
78%
Draw or Hapoel Mahane Yehuda
62%

Winning margin

Hapoel Hod HaSharon wins by 2+
20%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Hapoel Hod HaSharon 1+ goals
84%
Hapoel Hod HaSharon 2+ goals
54%
Hapoel Hod HaSharon 3+ goals
27%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 1+ goals
85%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 2+ goals
56%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Hod HaSharon (draw refunded)
48%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Hod HaSharon at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Hod HaSharon attack 1.75 + Hapoel Mahane Yehuda defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.81

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda attack 2.00 + Hapoel Hod HaSharon defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hapoel Hod HaSharon scores more
38%
level
22%
Hapoel Mahane Yehuda scores more
41%

Hapoel Mahane Yehuda at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hapoel Mahane Yehuda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Hapoel Hod HaSharon 5–1 Hapoel Mahane Yehuda

Hapoel Hod HaSharon beat Hapoel Mahane Yehuda 5-1 in State Cup on January 5, 2025.

The match was played at Neve Hadar Stadium in Hod HaSharon.