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Hapoel Hod HaSharon vs Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Hod HaSharon
Hapoel Hod HaSharon
FT
1 – 0
Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa
Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa
8/30/2022State CupState Cup · 1st Round (Liga Bet)Neve Hadar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Hod HaSharon70%
×Draw17%
Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Hod HaSharon
2.38
Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa
0.88

Hapoel Hod HaSharon creates 170% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Hapoel Hod HaSharon
1.75
Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa
0.00

allows per match

Hapoel Hod HaSharon
1.75
Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa
3.00

finishing

Hapoel Hod HaSharon+0.00on par
Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Hod HaSharon ↓

Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Hapoel Hod HaSharon or draw
88%
Hapoel Hod HaSharon or Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa
83%
Draw or Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa
30%

Winning margin

Hapoel Hod HaSharon wins by 2+
47%
Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Hapoel Hod HaSharon 1+ goals
91%
Hapoel Hod HaSharon 2+ goals
68%
Hapoel Hod HaSharon 3+ goals
42%
Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa 1+ goals
59%
Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa 2+ goals
22%
Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Hod HaSharon (draw refunded)
85%
Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Hod HaSharon at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Hod HaSharon attack 1.75 + Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.38

Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa attack 0.00 + Hapoel Hod HaSharon defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Hapoel Hod HaSharon scores more
70%
level
17%
Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa scores more
12%

Hapoel Hod HaSharon at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Hapoel Hod HaSharon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Hod HaSharon vs Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa

Hapoel Hod HaSharon beat Hapoel Kafr Qasim Shouaa 1-0 in State Cup on August 30, 2022.

The match was played at Neve Hadar Stadium in Hod HaSharon.