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Hapoel Hod HaSharon vs HaMakhtesh Givatayim — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Hod HaSharon
Hapoel Hod HaSharon
FT
1 – 2
HaMakhtesh Givatayim
HaMakhtesh Givatayim
9/6/2022State CupState Cup · 2nd Round (Liga Bet)Neve Hadar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Hod HaSharon35%
×Draw23%
HaMakhtesh Givatayim42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Hod HaSharon
1.54
HaMakhtesh Givatayim
1.71

HaMakhtesh Givatayim creates 11% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Hapoel Hod HaSharon
1.75
HaMakhtesh Givatayim
1.67

allows per match

Hapoel Hod HaSharon
1.75
HaMakhtesh Givatayim
1.33

finishing

Hapoel Hod HaSharon+0.00on par
HaMakhtesh Givatayim+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Hod HaSharon ↓

HaMakhtesh Givatayim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Hapoel Hod HaSharon or draw
58%
Hapoel Hod HaSharon or HaMakhtesh Givatayim
77%
Draw or HaMakhtesh Givatayim
65%

Winning margin

Hapoel Hod HaSharon wins by 2+
17%
HaMakhtesh Givatayim wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Hapoel Hod HaSharon 1+ goals
79%
Hapoel Hod HaSharon 2+ goals
45%
Hapoel Hod HaSharon 3+ goals
20%
HaMakhtesh Givatayim 1+ goals
82%
HaMakhtesh Givatayim 2+ goals
51%
HaMakhtesh Givatayim 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Hod HaSharon (draw refunded)
45%
HaMakhtesh Givatayim (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Hod HaSharon at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

HaMakhtesh Givatayim away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Hod HaSharon attack 1.75 + HaMakhtesh Givatayim defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

HaMakhtesh Givatayim attack 1.67 + Hapoel Hod HaSharon defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hapoel Hod HaSharon scores more
35%
level
23%
HaMakhtesh Givatayim scores more
42%

HaMakhtesh Givatayim at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "HaMakhtesh Givatayim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Hod HaSharon vs HaMakhtesh Givatayim

HaMakhtesh Givatayim beat Hapoel Hod HaSharon 2-1 in State Cup on September 6, 2022.

The match was played at Neve Hadar Stadium in Hod HaSharon.