Hapoel Hod HaSharon 6–3 Beitar Kfar Saba

Hapoel Hod HaSharon

AET

6 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Beitar Kfar Saba

9/24/2024

State Cup · 2nd Round (Liga Bet)Neve Hadar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Hod HaSharon14%

×Draw19%

Beitar Kfar Saba67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Hod HaSharonExpected goals in this matchBeitar Kfar Saba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

2.21

Hapoel Hod HaSharon

0.88

Beitar Kfar Saba

2.21

Beitar Kfar Saba creates 151% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.75

creates per match

2.67

1.75

allows per match

0.00

creates per match

Hapoel Hod HaSharon

1.75

Beitar Kfar Saba

2.67

allows per match

Hapoel Hod HaSharon

1.75

Beitar Kfar Saba

0.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Hod HaSharon+0.00on par

Beitar Kfar Saba+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Hod HaSharon ↓

Beitar Kfar Saba →

0–05%

0–110%

0–211%

0–38%

0–45%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Hapoel Hod HaSharon or draw

33%

Hapoel Hod HaSharon or Beitar Kfar Saba

81%

Draw or Beitar Kfar Saba

86%

Winning margin

Hapoel Hod HaSharon wins by 2+

Beitar Kfar Saba wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Hapoel Hod HaSharon 1+ goals

59%

Hapoel Hod HaSharon 2+ goals

22%

Hapoel Hod HaSharon 3+ goals

Beitar Kfar Saba 1+ goals

89%

Beitar Kfar Saba 2+ goals

65%

Beitar Kfar Saba 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Hod HaSharon (draw refunded)

17%

Beitar Kfar Saba (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Hod HaSharon at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Beitar Kfar Saba away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Hod HaSharon attack 1.75 + Beitar Kfar Saba defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Beitar Kfar Saba attack 2.67 + Hapoel Hod HaSharon defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Hapoel Hod HaSharon scores more

14%

level

19%

Beitar Kfar Saba scores more

67%

Beitar Kfar Saba at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Beitar Kfar Saba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff