Hapoel Herzliya 4–2 Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT

Hapoel Herzliya

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT

1/10/2024

State Cup · 7th RoundNational Stadium Ramat Gan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hapoel Herzliya49%

×Draw19%

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel HerzliyaExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Ironi Amishav PT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

2.17

Hapoel Herzliya

2.67

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT

2.17

Hapoel Herzliya creates 23% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

1.67

creates per match

1.33

3.00

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

Hapoel Herzliya

1.67

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT

1.33

allows per match

Hapoel Herzliya

3.00

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Herzliya+0.00on par

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Herzliya ↓

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1–02%

1–15%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

Hapoel Herzliya or draw

68%

Hapoel Herzliya or Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT

81%

Draw or Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT

51%

Winning margin

Hapoel Herzliya wins by 2+

31%

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hapoel Herzliya 1+ goals

93%

Hapoel Herzliya 2+ goals

74%

Hapoel Herzliya 3+ goals

49%

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT 1+ goals

89%

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT 2+ goals

64%

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Herzliya (draw refunded)

60%

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Herzliya at home — creates 1.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Herzliya attack 1.67 + Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.67

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT attack 1.33 + Hapoel Herzliya defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hapoel Herzliya scores more

49%

level

19%

Maccabi Ironi Amishav PT scores more

32%

Hapoel Herzliya at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hapoel Herzliya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff