Hapoel Haifa 1–1 Maccabi Netanya: Result & Stats

Hapoel Haifa

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Maccabi Netanya

5/17/2025

Ligat Ha'al · Championship Round - 9Sammy Ofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Hapoel Haifa41%

×Draw25%

Maccabi Netanya34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel HaifaExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Netanya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.31

Hapoel Haifa

1.48

Maccabi Netanya

1.31

Hapoel Haifa creates 13% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 118 away

1.34

creates per match

1.25

1.36

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Hapoel Haifa

1.34

Maccabi Netanya

1.25

allows per match

Hapoel Haifa

1.36

Maccabi Netanya

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Haifa+0.00on par

Maccabi Netanya+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Haifa ↓

Maccabi Netanya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hapoel Haifa or draw

66%

Hapoel Haifa or Maccabi Netanya

75%

Draw or Maccabi Netanya

59%

Winning margin

Hapoel Haifa wins by 2+

20%

Maccabi Netanya wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hapoel Haifa 1+ goals

77%

Hapoel Haifa 2+ goals

43%

Hapoel Haifa 3+ goals

19%

Maccabi Netanya 1+ goals

73%

Maccabi Netanya 2+ goals

38%

Maccabi Netanya 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Haifa (draw refunded)

55%

Maccabi Netanya (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Haifa at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.36 · 123 matches

Maccabi Netanya away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.61 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Haifa attack 1.34 + Maccabi Netanya defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.48

Maccabi Netanya attack 1.25 + Hapoel Haifa defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hapoel Haifa scores more

41%

level

25%

Maccabi Netanya scores more

34%

Hapoel Haifa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hapoel Haifa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff