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Hapoel Haifa vs Hapoel Tel Aviv — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Haifa
Hapoel Haifa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Hapoel Tel Avivadvanced
1/16/2025State CupState Cup · Round of 16Sammy Ofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hapoel Haifa17%
×Draw24%
Hapoel Tel Aviv59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Haifa
0.75
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.67

Hapoel Tel Aviv creates 123% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Hapoel Haifa
0.83
Hapoel Tel Aviv
1.67

allows per match

Hapoel Haifa
1.67
Hapoel Tel Aviv
0.67

finishing

Hapoel Haifa+0.00on par
Hapoel Tel Aviv+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Haifa ↓

Hapoel Tel Aviv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hapoel Haifa or draw
41%
Hapoel Haifa or Hapoel Tel Aviv
76%
Draw or Hapoel Tel Aviv
83%

Winning margin

Hapoel Haifa wins by 2+
5%
Hapoel Tel Aviv wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Hapoel Haifa 1+ goals
53%
Hapoel Haifa 2+ goals
17%
Hapoel Haifa 3+ goals
4%
Hapoel Tel Aviv 1+ goals
81%
Hapoel Tel Aviv 2+ goals
50%
Hapoel Tel Aviv 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Haifa (draw refunded)
22%
Hapoel Tel Aviv (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Haifa at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Hapoel Tel Aviv away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Haifa attack 0.83 + Hapoel Tel Aviv defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.75

Hapoel Tel Aviv attack 1.67 + Hapoel Haifa defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Hapoel Haifa scores more
17%
level
24%
Hapoel Tel Aviv scores more
59%

Hapoel Tel Aviv at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Hapoel Tel Aviv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Haifa vs Hapoel Tel Aviv

Hapoel Tel Aviv beat Hapoel Haifa 2-1 in State Cup on January 16, 2025.

The match was played at Sammy Ofer Stadium in Haifa.