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Hapoel Haifa vs Hapoel Hadera — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Hapoel Haifa
Hapoel Haifa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hapoel Hadera
Hapoel Hadera
1/16/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 17Sammy Ofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Hapoel Haifa40%
×Draw27%
Hapoel Hadera34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Haifa
1.33
Hapoel Hadera
1.20

Hapoel Haifa creates 11% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 97 away

creates per match

Hapoel Haifa
1.34
Hapoel Hadera
1.03

allows per match

Hapoel Haifa
1.36
Hapoel Hadera
1.31

finishing

Hapoel Haifa+0.00on par
Hapoel Hadera+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Haifa ↓

Hapoel Hadera →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hapoel Haifa or draw
66%
Hapoel Haifa or Hapoel Hadera
73%
Draw or Hapoel Hadera
60%

Winning margin

Hapoel Haifa wins by 2+
18%
Hapoel Hadera wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hapoel Haifa 1+ goals
74%
Hapoel Haifa 2+ goals
38%
Hapoel Haifa 3+ goals
15%
Hapoel Hadera 1+ goals
70%
Hapoel Hadera 2+ goals
34%
Hapoel Hadera 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Haifa (draw refunded)
54%
Hapoel Hadera (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Haifa at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.36 · 123 matches

Hapoel Hadera away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.31 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Haifa attack 1.34 + Hapoel Hadera defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Hapoel Hadera attack 1.03 + Hapoel Haifa defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hapoel Haifa scores more
40%
level
27%
Hapoel Hadera scores more
34%

Hapoel Haifa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hapoel Haifa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Haifa vs Hapoel Hadera

Hapoel Haifa beat Hapoel Hadera 2-0 in Ligat Ha'al on January 16, 2024.

The match was played at Sammy Ofer Stadium in Haifa.