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Hapoel Haifa vs Beitar Jerusalem — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Hapoel Haifa
Hapoel Haifa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Beitar Jerusalem
Beitar Jerusalem
5/11/2025Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Championship Round - 8Sammy Ofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Hapoel Haifa34%
×Draw25%
Beitar Jerusalem41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Haifa
1.33
Beitar Jerusalem
1.47

Beitar Jerusalem creates 11% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 120 away

creates per match

Hapoel Haifa
1.34
Beitar Jerusalem
1.57

allows per match

Hapoel Haifa
1.36
Beitar Jerusalem
1.33

finishing

Hapoel Haifa+0.00on par
Beitar Jerusalem+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Haifa ↓

Beitar Jerusalem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hapoel Haifa or draw
59%
Hapoel Haifa or Beitar Jerusalem
75%
Draw or Beitar Jerusalem
66%

Winning margin

Hapoel Haifa wins by 2+
15%
Beitar Jerusalem wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Hapoel Haifa 1+ goals
74%
Hapoel Haifa 2+ goals
38%
Hapoel Haifa 3+ goals
15%
Beitar Jerusalem 1+ goals
77%
Beitar Jerusalem 2+ goals
43%
Beitar Jerusalem 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Haifa (draw refunded)
46%
Beitar Jerusalem (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Haifa at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.36 · 123 matches

Beitar Jerusalem away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.33 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Haifa attack 1.34 + Beitar Jerusalem defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Beitar Jerusalem attack 1.57 + Hapoel Haifa defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hapoel Haifa scores more
34%
level
25%
Beitar Jerusalem scores more
41%

Beitar Jerusalem at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Beitar Jerusalem will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Hapoel Haifa 1–0 Beitar Jerusalem

Hapoel Haifa beat Beitar Jerusalem 1-0 in Ligat Ha'al on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Sammy Ofer Stadium in Haifa.