Hapoel Hadera 1–3 Maccabi Haifa: Result & Stats

Hapoel Hadera

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Maccabi Haifa

2/1/2025

Ligat Ha'al · Round 21Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Hapoel Hadera23%

×Draw24%

Maccabi Haifa52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel HaderaExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Haifa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

1.67

Hapoel Hadera

1.03

Maccabi Haifa

1.67

Maccabi Haifa creates 62% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 127 away

1.00

creates per match

1.83

1.50

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Hapoel Hadera

1.00

Maccabi Haifa

1.83

allows per match

Hapoel Hadera

1.50

Maccabi Haifa

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Hadera+0.00on par

Maccabi Haifa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Hadera ↓

Maccabi Haifa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Hapoel Hadera or draw

48%

Hapoel Hadera or Maccabi Haifa

76%

Draw or Maccabi Haifa

77%

Winning margin

Hapoel Hadera wins by 2+

9%

Maccabi Haifa wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Hapoel Hadera 1+ goals

64%

Hapoel Hadera 2+ goals

28%

Hapoel Hadera 3+ goals

9%

Maccabi Haifa 1+ goals

81%

Maccabi Haifa 2+ goals

50%

Maccabi Haifa 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Hadera (draw refunded)

31%

Maccabi Haifa (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Hadera at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 101 matches

Maccabi Haifa away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.06 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Hadera attack 1.00 + Maccabi Haifa defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Maccabi Haifa attack 1.83 + Hapoel Hadera defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hapoel Hadera scores more

23%

level

24%

Maccabi Haifa scores more

52%

Maccabi Haifa at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Maccabi Haifa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff