Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hapoel Hadera vs Maccabi Bnei Raina — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Hapoel Hadera
Hapoel Hadera
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Maccabi Bnei Raina
Maccabi Bnei Raina
12/5/2023Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 7Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Hapoel Hadera35%
×Draw27%
Maccabi Bnei Raina37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Hadera
1.21
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 68 away

creates per match

Hapoel Hadera
1.00
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.01

allows per match

Hapoel Hadera
1.50
Maccabi Bnei Raina
1.41

finishing

Hapoel Hadera+0.00on par
Maccabi Bnei Raina+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Hadera ↓

Maccabi Bnei Raina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hapoel Hadera or draw
63%
Hapoel Hadera or Maccabi Bnei Raina
73%
Draw or Maccabi Bnei Raina
65%

Winning margin

Hapoel Hadera wins by 2+
15%
Maccabi Bnei Raina wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hapoel Hadera 1+ goals
70%
Hapoel Hadera 2+ goals
34%
Hapoel Hadera 3+ goals
12%
Maccabi Bnei Raina 1+ goals
71%
Maccabi Bnei Raina 2+ goals
36%
Maccabi Bnei Raina 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Hadera (draw refunded)
49%
Maccabi Bnei Raina (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Hadera at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 101 matches

Maccabi Bnei Raina away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Hadera attack 1.00 + Maccabi Bnei Raina defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Maccabi Bnei Raina attack 1.01 + Hapoel Hadera defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hapoel Hadera scores more
35%
level
27%
Maccabi Bnei Raina scores more
37%

Maccabi Bnei Raina at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Maccabi Bnei Raina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Hapoel Hadera 0–2 Maccabi Bnei Raina

Maccabi Bnei Raina beat Hapoel Hadera 2-0 in Ligat Ha'al on December 5, 2023.

The match was played at Netanya Stadium in Netanya.